Odds & Maths

Odds and maths: counting outs, pricing calls and knowing when a number decides it

The arithmetic under every decision, written out slowly enough to check.

Bar diagram showing a bet added to a pot and the share of the resulting pot that a call must pay
The price of a call is the bet divided by the pot that call creates, not by the pot before the bet.

Odds & Maths

Pot odds, and the one division that settles most calls

A call is worth making when the chance of winning is greater than the share of the final pot the call has to pay. Everything else is detail.

Most calling decisions reduce to a single comparison. On one side is the price of the call, expressed as the share of the final pot the caller has to put in. On the other is the chance the caller has of holding the winning hand. If the chance is larger than the share, calling is worth it. If it is smaller, folding is.

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